Okay so before Jumping into the conclusion.. let me put it in your brain the facts n figures. Let us consider the countries with fastest growing economies around the World. Brazil, Russia, India and China. Now based on their Political system, Population, Accessibilty and Flexibility in the Stock Market, we will land onto the conclusion.

First, Political system..
Russia : Mr Putin says he is the biggest democrat in the world.
Brazil : was for long years ruled by miliatry dictatorship.
china : since more than 50 years are democracy. and
India : since 60 years is a Real Democracy. And it is the only country that can be called the REAL and LARGEST DEMOCRACY in the World.

Next, Population..
Russia : 150 million (still declining... not true sign of growth).
Brazil : 200 million.
U.S : 300 million, and
India : 1.2 Billion (4 times of U.S... still growing)
China : 1.3 billion (1 child policy.. also ageing... means not growing as compared to India).

Supportive figures:
In India 50% of the population is below 25yrs
1/3rd is below 15 years.
It means the coming years ahead is a lot n a lot of people willing to buy cars, houses, fancy clothes, cosmetics for women and all commodities which means buying power will come to India.

Young Indians are Intelligent, Dynamic, Wants to learn and able to learn Fast. Biggest dynamics comes from the education.
In Germany : 23,000 graduates in engineering. and
In India : 300,000 graduates... means lot of knowledge.
This in long run is excellent to the country.

For Russia its : oil/gas/commodities.
For Brazil its : same exporting wood, coffee. BUT
For India its : Bright young people are the main resources. and its Education that has make a lot of it... and we still have room for higher education as we have states with literacy rates only 70% and not 98-99% as it should be.


Next, Accessibillty
Talking in time zone from germany(random selection)
flying to :
India is 7.5hrs
Russia is 3 hrs
U.S is 9hrs
Brazil is 12 hrs
china is 11 hrs

so by time zone diffence its
8-9 hrs from china
5 hrs from Brazil
4.5 hrs from russia and
3.5 hrs from India. (best accessibilty)

Last, Flexibilty in the Stock Market.

Indian Sock exchange, founded in 1870 is by far the Oldest Stock Exchange in Asia... and its still growing with NSE. It is highly regarded derivatives exchanges.
Its, Stock market of India and China that exceeds all other GrowthWise.

Growth goes together with higher income and is very much important.
Today in India, middle class is emerging as a new middle class in and is growing by 25% anually and Ofcourse poor class is a hell of people, hundreads of millions and this number is declining in absolute and relative terms.

If we look back to the history, since 1000 or 500 years half of the worlds GDP or the wealth and income is produced by China and India.
But,
In Market share India's participation in world trade is meer 1%. It means a lot of room to grow and move upwards and back on straight line of worlds leading power in atleast 10-15-20 years.

Conclusion : India will be the next manufacturing superpower into commodities.

Regards,
saurabh nigam,
software engineer,
R Systems International,
noida. Votes: +2

This is in response to “Who will be the next manufacturing super-power?” but before moving further I would like to thank you very much for starting such kind of magazine. Before 6 months I saw “DARE” in a book-store and then after I am very crazy fan of “DARE”.
As DARE mentioned in previous to previous issue that, there are very less chances for developed countries to become manufacturing super-power. As we know in USA major problem of prime issue and sub-prime issue (i.e. US people did not used to saving. They used to earn 5 days a week and spend it on Saturday and Sunday. So when any American took loan, there was no regulation to mortgage their properties. As a result so companies or banks who gave loans have become vulnerable to get loans back.) is going on, which proves major financial deficit. Currently USA can be considered strong for their bio-fuel project of worth $800billion, but its not enough to become manufacturing super power. Also it has approximately 4% GDP. So despite of strong position of USA, it has no chance to become next manufacturing super power.
Now if we talk about euro area, they have also serious problem of ageing. By the next 20 years, there will be two old persons compare to one young person. Euro countries gives funds to their retired or old citizens, all these expenses have to bear young people (government deduct from their incomes.). So as the ratio of old people to young people increase, the purchasing power of Euro nations will decrease. Hence, it is very difficult to attract business where there is a low purchasing power. So there is no chance for this area to become next manufacturing super power.
Real competition is here itself (ASIA). As the entire world knows that currently China is in strong position. In nearly future (in next 5-7 years) no country can beat them but in answer to DARE’s question that “who is the next?” So as the era of China will end, next (I strongly believe) will be the INDIA. China also facing the problem of ageing, while currently India is considered as the young country.


This ageing factor also affect India but compare to other country it is low. So we can say China is on downstairs, while India is on upstairs. However India’s GDP comes 54% from service and it is expected to grow in the future but that does not mean it will affect manufacturing growth. As we have labor power it becomes easy for the business to start. Here FDI also plays the major role, china attract more FDI because Chinese people have more purchasing power. But now India is also on the way of China.

This exciting potential is closely linked to India’s remarkable demographic advantage. While the per capita income has almost doubled in the last five years and is growing, India’s projected UN population increase from 2000 to 2020 is 310 million. This advantage of having a huge workforce gives India an edge over other nations.

Certainly the increased inflow of FDI is one factor that has given a major boost to India’s economy.









India’s rapid rise to an economic heavy weight is a splendid case of competitive dynamism. And why not, over the last four years, the country has achieved an average growth rate of 8.7%, mainly driven by investment & higher productivity. Even as the global economy slows in 2008, the demand side drivers of India’s economy are not expected to undergo much structural re-balancing. In fact, India seems virtually unstoppable.

Other competitors of India are Russia, Brazil. But since last few months, it seems like global economic crisis, like stagflation (high inflation and slowing in economic growth) but even though India’s market (sensex) has given 13% of return (from the lowest level of 12000 to now) while other countries like China, Brazil and Russia has given negative return on their indexes. So this clearly indicates that how strong Indian economy is.

But the real question is, what will be the theme for manufacturing? It will be not anything costly like engine (England), but it will be the same as China (cheap goods & massive scale). Because currently India is at the top to produce the consumer goods compare to other items. As the recent study says manufacturing growth in previous month was 5.9%. It is less than the previous year but this is a real time recession and despite of that we could achieve this growth. Crude prices are falling now, now foods are considered the cause for high Inflation. As the price will fall of food than the inflation will be in control, so will have much better result of industries growth. And India will be the next manufacturing super power soon……….


Thanks…………….

From:
Arman Dholaria (MBA Student)

Votes: +0

It is really painfull but a truth that inspite of having lots of high calibre and enterprenual manpower India just can not become manufacturing superpower,due to various reasons including low productivity of manpower,lack of proper/systamatic infrastructure,lack of govt policy support including labour laws, burocracy,high cost of fuels,raw materials,heavy interest rates, heavy taxations,unorganised/underdeveloped logistics and above all Typical Political system of our country,
it is not viable to compete in global market as regards quality and cost both,

on the other hand CHINA has a possitive marking against all above points except little bit lagging in calibre of man power.

so in my opinion CHINA will be manufacturing superpower

L C Tolani Votes: +1

Need and demand are the key words dictating and creating the revolution even in manufacturing. If we look at the past we may see how it would be in the future. In the late 18th century the Britain had enormous marketing base all over the world in the form of British colonies. The Britain’s traditional methods were unwilling to cater the world demand right from pressing the cotton bales and manufacturing equipments all needed new express way of doing it. Thus the need gave us the steam engine technology and eventually Britain became the manufacturing super power of that time.

As the industrial revolution traveled across the world the next critical need became transportation, as that was the period when the world started shrinking. And so the petrol engine powered the second phase of manufacturing revolution in USA After almost many decades of world war when people started living peacefully and comfortably which dictated the need of new technology for their comfort. From the 1940’s for many decades the world was peaceful without major world wars, thus enabling the nations to pour more resources in developing new technologies for people’s day today comfort resulting in numerous inventions and expensive technologies. This gave rise to the digital revolution of Japan. Eventually the next step was to provide all class of people with latest technologies in products with affordable prices which gave rise to Chinese mass production of cheap goods.

Now the world is filled with technologies and numerous methods to tap the resources from all over the universe. But one thing we cannot mass produce is talent human power. So the next manufacturing super power would be INDIA, BRAZIL, or RUSSIA. Among this three India stands the best chance. And the next commodity is not ‘manufacturing’ but ‘humanaring’.

I can even give a hint on the sixth manufacturing super power next to humanaring revolution of India. As I had mentioned in the beginning that need is the key word, the enormous demand of human power during the fifth revolution of India will lead to the Era of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.


Ramesh Thiraviam
Chennai
Votes: +0

INDIA - rise in young talented competetive entrepreneurs acquiring world renowned industries and meeting the international quality standards of products emphasising on durability Votes: -2

"Undoubtly INDIA will be the next manufacturing Super Power." I have following reasons to believe this statement:-

- India has a new breed of talented industrialists, who dare to venture into new industries and introduce latest technology.

- Priority is being given to Research and development and our industrialists dare to innovate.

- Example of Tata Steel acquiring Corus : our industrialists have been on acquisition spree to gain world-wide recognition and improve competitiveness of indian manufacturing industries.

- Increased share of private sector and dis-investment by public sector has boosted capacity of our manufacturing industries.

- Growth in consumerism with increased consumer demands has laid good foundation for sustained future growth of our manufacturing industries. GDP growth of 8% + would fuel further growth.

- Liberalised Industrial Policy, Incentives for Exports, formation of SEZs have boosted the confidence of our manufacturing industries.

- India still has economic advantages like cheap labour, availability of raw materials and technology, cheap capital.

- Improved industrial harmony and our youth power would ensure surge of our manufacturing industries in years to come.


Ramesh Nayak
Senior Manager (P)
SyndicateBank
Head Office : Personnel Dept : PAD
MANIPAL 576 104

- Votes: +0

As written in article first industrial revolution was about mechanisation and according to me current revolution is about HUMANISATION . Today everybody is talking about nuclear power, nanotechnology ,biotechnology but these all powers are dependant on BRAIN POWER or more correctly HUMAN POWER.
so the next superpower of the world will only be that country which will manufacture i.e.nurture brain power and certainly INDIA is at lead.Indian brains are dominating all over the world.Think of any successful organisation ,place or sector ,most of the time you will find indian brains behind it.Certainly indians are leaving mark at every footstep, this fact is also evident from the fact that all leading foreign companies are competing madly to recruit indians.
So the poster boys of this new era will be the INDIAN YOUTH.
Although it is the brighter side of coin but still we have fire in the belly to meet all the hardships .
JAI HIND!!

THANKS & REGARDS
SURABHI PARAKH,
MBA STUDENT,
JAIPUR Votes: -1

Brazil (untapped flora) or Russia (untapped petroleum resources)will be a strong contender of the next super power nation.The previous all superpowers had great engineering technology. But the next 3 superpowers will have vast untapped natural resources like flora, fauna or humans.

Therefore, next superpower will be Brazil. Next Russia (difficult terrain, not easily accessible with current technologies). India lose out now becoz of the quality of human resource avialable is not too great on an average. While it will be the next superpower after Russia's era in around 2035 becoz os its same high skilled human resouces on an average by that time...So Indian have patience, relax and get back to work for a better tomorrow.

Hope Mr.Krishna Kumar catches the insight of thinking for this article.

Regards
Arnab Guha
arnabguha245@yahoo.com
09941479183 Votes: -3

Historically, the Manufacturing super powers have been countries or economies which have had a technological or economical edge on the rest of the world.

Any country which delivered superior value in terms of quality or cost was the production super power for a period of time until the value (quality or cost) was replicated or diminished.

With the advent of globalization the world has shrunk and geographies have started to be redundant. Developing nations are rapidly moving towards becoming developed and technologies are no more limited to any particular geographies.

As the world moves towards Economic and Technological Equality (diminishing cost advantage between developing and developed nations` Human resource costs) and higher energy costs, as corporations expand their foot print across the globe,No one country will wear the mantle of the new manufacturing super-power. With locally available technology and little in difference in global human resource costs it will make most economic sense to manufacture good closer to the consumer as that would reduce the energy cost implication. With high number of consumers present all across the world (USA, Mexico, Brazil, Europe, Japan, India, China, Korea etc.) No one country will be able to establish its supremacy in the manufacturing arena.

Votes: +0

C K Prahlad & M S Krishnan in their book “The new age of innovation” predict that the future enterprises will cater to every individual customer leveraging on the global resources (N=1, R=G). Apple iPod one of the iconic devices of this generation reads “Designed by Apple in California” and is manufactured in China. This further reiterates the “R=G” part of the equation proposed in the book.
As the gap between the poor and the rich reduces there will be more demand for Haute Coutre (custom fit), while prêt (ready-to-wear) will still be around. The Haute Coutre manufacturing will be characterized by co-creation by high end users and designers. While the high end users will be around the world, Europe with its excellent design capabilities will emerge as an important hub in this hub and spoke model of development.
Asia will still be the hot destination for the prêt manufacturing. But there will be a more decentralized manufacturing base with Vietnam and other Asian countries taking some chunk of work away from China.
The BMW needed the autobahn, similarly the infrastructure of next generation of manufacturing will be
•Web 2.0 – improved co-creation facilitated by better collaborative tools
•English emerging more strongly around the world to enable the co-creation
•5th Generation Software development platforms – High value engineering teams develop highly flexible business platforms which are customized, analyzed and fine-tuned in real time by business managers.
Votes: +0

After reading your article ,the sector which is going to be the nxt BIG thing will be POWER sector from RENEWABLE energy including NUCLEAR energy and i am very sure on that fact.
Today the world in facing the biggest challenge of global warming which can destroy us ones in for all and also the fact that as the population of the world increases we require more and more energy in the form of electricity .i see our future equipments would be from solar,wind,bio fuel,water tech etc.
now coming to your nxt question ,it is EXTREMELY difficult to name anyone country bcz in renewable energy sector every country is busy innovating these days but i have feeling that UNITED STATES OF AMERICA will lead the race simple because of extreme support of thier political leaders on this very issue,easy financial support to thier scientist and engineers and huge number of international tech community presence thus making work much much easier. Votes: -1

I Strongly believe that next manufacturing superpower will Our India. Nowadays, Indian realising the quality and quantity output in a cost effective manor by maintaining time of work. Votes: -1

Manufacturing Super Power England-Steam Engine, America-Diesel Engine, Japan-Electronics, China-Cheap Products next INDIA-Health Products. Votes: -1

SUPERPOWER- Who will be the next?

Manufacturing excellence has always moved from geography to geography but somewhere basic concept is the same i.e. materialistic life. The four superpowers England, USA, Japan and China made our lives more comfortable but gifted us a lot of problems like Global warming, population, pollution and lot of diseases. Think of a situation when money is flowing like sea water but there is no one to use it. Where we stand? No where. For e.g. it took whole life to be millionaire but a month to come on road because of the dreadful disease Cancer. Mechanization, industrialization and there fellow friend negativity is on its peak. What we need next is the developing country full of resources, less negativity, young energetic and dynamic population. By negativity I mean utilization of energy and ideas in wrong way. Do not we think we are looking for a country like India? According to analysis and changing requirement India is going to be the next super power. But it’s very difficult to say “what will be the next area which will drive the next manufacturing cycle?” Not one but the two areas will take INDIA on the top. The country with the maximum production of POWER and MEDICINE will make a difference. When I wrote this article before I forgot the most important problem we are facing now a days of electricity. Every time there is a power cut. This has created blunder in the production field which is decreasing day by day. So the country with the maximum power production whether thermal, solar, wind, nuclear any kind of energy can only be the next superpower. Recently I went through an article by Mr. RAHUL GANDHI in which he clarified that due the nuclear deal about 200 of nuclear plants will be started making INDIA one of the leading producer of nuclear energy.

I remember one of the proverbs which say “Every coin has two faces” and that’s true with development. It has two faces one is the rise and another one is the fall. Rise in economy and fall in health. They remain with each other as the two faces of coin and jointly will rule the markets all over the world.

The Medicinal area is another one, waiting to drive the next manufacturing cycle. We are not untouched by the fact that half of the population cannot afford their diagnosis and treatment because of the costly medicines. We can see even the BPL people carrying cells because of Chinese revolution. But the same masses die of pain as they are not able to afford the ever increasing cost of treatment. This is all what made me write that India is going to be next super power and that too in the health sector. India is the biggest platform for entrepreneurship because it has both components capital and lot of young dynamic energetic labour. This is the only country which has lot of resources, medicinal plants and the second in the cement production after China. Country with a lot of geographical diversity is in a state to produce any kind of medicinal herb. We are also not untouched by this fact that our saints use to live healthier lives more 100-200 yrs because of their Ayurvedic Methods. We have to find and invest more and more resources like money and labour in this area. “The forest minister of Himachal Pradesh has asked people to invest their infrastructure, lands and energy in this area and he himself has planned to reach everyone and give medicinal plants. He is clear with this fact that INDIA is the only country which can have so many kinds of medicinal plants”.
Theme of this revolution is very noble and that is “saving lives of the people”. Not the production but the invention era of natural products is the next. Products free of chemicals like medicines, cosmetics and household products will rule over the world. Now day’s tension, restlessness is increasing due to ever increasing demands and due to the race to be at top. We can’t compromise with the economic growth in short with industrialization hence these problems will increase more and more. Hence just the pathway of yoga and ayurveda can relax us from tension and direct our energy towards the right direction. It’s not a point to be included but let me clear one scientific concept that even the world’s renowned scientist use 5% of their mind. From last few years invention level is becoming stagnant means, now it is required that we should use our left over mind. It’s not like eating an ice cream but we have to put in efforts in the form of meditation and yoga. India is the only country which has just 10% people who are above average and the left 90% are yet waiting to achieve success leading to no concept of ‘me generation’. Poster boy of this era will be “YOGA and ayurveda” and it is telling us that stop finding some other nation as the next sunrise is of Indians.

SWATI RANA,
BIOTECH STUDENT (PUNJAB).
Votes: +1

It is interesting to look back into the history of ‘manufacturing’ super powers and try to forecast about the future players! Industrial revolution started in Europe (England). During and after the world war, US became the super power not only because of scientific advancements but because of abundant resources and the arms race. A country like Japan, which doesn’t have any of the significant raw materials, even threatened the European and US markets in the areas of electronics and automobiles. Its ‘miniaturization’ and ‘quality management’ were highly acclaimed and emulated. The then super powers even tried desperately to insulate their public from Japanese brands in the name of ‘nationality’. The Koreans were close on the heels. A new phenomenon has recently taken place and has suddenly taken over the world by surprise. ‘Cost cutting’ and ‘mass- production’ by Chinese in the areas of practically day to day usable items has rocked the local manufacturers in almost all the countries, jeopardizing the national economy. Chinese invasion has become impossible to counter. Therefore, most of the world giants have become collaborative. At the same time, high level technical caliber available in India at highly competitive rates has resulted in an ‘out-source’ industry. The Indians are already in great demand for software solutions and outsourced jobs. Thus growing economy of China and growing supply of manpower of India in the flat world has limited our choice to identify the future super power. The race is going on and China seems to have an edge, the way it has taken a leap in improving its infrastructure and mass production at a jet speed. We are not wrong in assuming it a super power of today.

Now, if we try to settle down to a single item, the production of which is going to determine the super power of future, it is the ‘Power’ itself ! One who would be able to generate maximum power, would be able to supply it to others and would be able to fuel its massive programs, would eventually be the super power of the future. In coming 30 years there is going to be a great struggle for capturing the fuel to generate power. Even a war is not ruled out in the areas of gulf including Iran and Iraq. But by the end of thirty years the world would have very easily discovered that the real source of power is the Sun and the wind, the water and the hydrogen. The future cars would be running on electricity and the batteries, like reva and the hybrid Honda of today. Since even now every country is trying hard and aiming high to be self sufficient in power, there is no likelihood of a single country which could be a super power in the manufacturing of ‘power’. In fact power production would be like cottage industry after 50 years. The technology will be so easy and cheap that batteries will be produced like matches are being produced today. Therefore, what will be significant after 50 years is not the ‘material things’, but the ‘Human resources’. I can easily foresee India as becoming a super power in 2050, in manufacturing not any material power of consumption, but ‘man power of services and leadership’. By that time we would be producing the highest number of technical and managerial power of class and quality. Given the young aged largest population in the world, growing quality of education, hard working culture, hunger for good standard of living, there is no doubt that the Indian peninsula (if not an island) will make history in producing and providing a phenomenally large technical man power to fulfill the need of the world. The signs are already evident. The leadership provided by Indians and capability of producing and managing the wealth have been recognized the world over. Be it Rakesh Jain of United Airlines or Indra Nooyi of Pepsi, Arcelor-Mittal or Ambanis, Tatas or Nilekanis, Deepak Chopra or Maharishi Mahesh yogi. The leadership of the Indians is grabbing world giants. Chinese are far behind. It requires back up of culture and values. It should not be a surprise, if after 48 years from now some Rao or Reddy, some Khanna or Sinha, some Bose or Banerjee, some Singh or Patel becomes the President of the United States of America. And that will be our poster boy, literally!

Jai Hind!
Votes: -1

The Analysis is based on the following :-

Manufacturing phases:
Theme
Geography

England : About 100 years
Mechanization
Island - Europe

USA : About 60 years
Mass production Assembly line
Mainland - USA

Japan : About 30 years
Electronics
Island - Asia

China : About 15 to 20 years !!
Cheap / Mass production.
Mainland - ASIA

---
Key Drivers: Major Wars - Petroleum
Assets: Brick & Mortar Infrastructure - Cement / Steel.
--

My view are :-

Geographical Location:

The is an Era of Globalization and information technology so no particular COUNTRY will probably claim a monopoly on the next industrialization phase. The Manufacturing will be done by various global corporations at the most COST EFFECTIVE locations anywhere in the world.

It will be decentralized - one country or region will not be a lone player or major driver.

The concept of TOTAL COST TO COMPANY will come into play rather than just comparing the CHEAPEST source of products.

The LOW level manufacturing may continue in ASIAN countries .

Ex. Nokia phone made in India / China .. and sold all over the world.. but again the biggest markets for Nokia are also these countries.

Though the manufacturing is done in the LOW COST countries, the value addition in terms of design and innovation is with the parent company whereby the major chunk of the VALUE (MONEY) flows to the parent company in Finland.
---

PHASE:

Once the CHINA phase ends - (the beginning of the end has already started) since China is doing away with the export subsidies in phased manner. There will not be any new phase like the ones we have seen before.

IT will now be more leveled and distributed. Technology - specifically internet technology which is playing a major role in this process.

STEEL IS STEEL in any country.

ENERGY IS ENERGY in any country.

MACHINE is MACHINE in any country (specially the CNC machines)

This logic can be applied to any other industry, be it plastic, textile,. Etc..

In this global economy the commodity and energy prices are similar or in a small bandwidth through out the world.

If they are not than market forces will ensure that in the near future they will all behave in tandem all throughout the world.

Hence where the input cost of the basic material and energy accounts for 70% or more, of the cost of the final product, the production cost of the product will also be within a small bandwidth through out the world, therefore the global companies will start moving to TOTAL COST TO COMPANY concept. and the location of the final consumers will start determining the place of production.

The manufacturing will move away from mass production in various items.. Hence the Plants will become smaller, more mechanized or automatic to handle quick changes in design and innovations and deliver the final products very quickly to the end consumer who are located at various locations... Rather than one GIANT FACTORY churning our huge volumes which is slow to respond to changes.

Theme:

The theme will move away form manufacturing to DESIGN / INNOVATION.

The consumer has the same level of information and access to products amiable to him whether he is in Africa or America.

He has seen it all during the last decade. The info media is giving him a lot of options to chose from. Hence he will be able to decide what he wants rather than buy what is being made...

Perfect example is Ford T - which revolutionized the auto industry and put a car in a common mans reach...

You can paint it any color, so long as it's black

It has never been proven that Henry Ford ever said, "You can paint it any color...," but the phrase has survived for 3/4 of a century and does indicate something about America's beloved Model T: its "steadfastness," its enduring and endearing "sameness." The first production Model T Ford was assembled at the Piquette Avenue Plant in Detroit on October 1, 1908. Over the next 19 years, Ford would build 15,000,000 automobiles with the Model "T" engine, the longest run of any single model apart from the Volkswagen Beetle. From 1908-1927, the Model T would endure with little change in its design. Henry Ford had succeeded in his quest to build a car for the masses. It also meant that the BUYERS did not have much choice than...

Can you imagine a similar scenario in the present times of CONSUME / USE and DISPOSE ...

IT is no longer a sellers market ... the buyers make the decision and there are umpteen number of companies waiting to service them.

The old economy companies who are not able to understand this will soon be out of the picture.

SO the THEME will be NOTHING IN PARTICULAR...

BUT EVERYTHING WITH BETTER DESIGN AND INNOVATION.
---
Wars:

This has now become a continuous process and instead of involving the whole world it has become more TARGET specific or localized so to say,

As is does not make BUSINESS SENSE any longer for the entire world to take sides as this could probably mean an end of the human race and hence " NO BUSINESS".

Earlier it was political greed which were the major driving factors of a war.

Now it is the CORPORATE GREED which are driving the political masters to engage in the localized wars.

The wars were and will always be for control of resources which are demarcated by the political boundries.

The new GLOBAL Corporations have interest in most of the discovered world energy resources hence this is the new detterent for a full fledged war as we have seen in the past.

SO there will not be a MAJOR CONFLICT which involves a major region of the world.
---
Assets:

Yes infrastructure plays a major part in the development process.
Yes all tangible assets have great value.
But there is more value in the intangible assets... IP / Patents / Designs / Brands are the new drivers for VALUE determination.

Google / Windows are perfect examples of how quickly their valuations have reached astronomical proportions, leveraged by tangible assets the value of which is only a fraction of their intangible assets.

The next Google could be from any part of the world... there are no geographical or any other restrictions to what/where/how a human brain can conceive ...
----
My view is...
Political boundaries will not matter ….soon...
The entire world is being INTERLINKED AS A GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN.
The Future Drivers will be:
INFORMATION - TECHNOLOGY
ENIVROMENTAL ISSUES - GLOBAL WARMING, etc.. –
FOOD & WATER
RENEWABLE ENERGY
(These factors did not exist till the end of two world wars.)

The world economy will be controlled by a hand full of FUNDS through a hand full of corporations. Political boundries ( wars) will come into play only when certain ECONOMICAL interests of these corporations are at stake.

And this is the scenario since the II world war.... the war is continuous Process now...A full-fledged war is not a viable BUSINESS PROPOSITION ANYMORE.

It is no longer about manufacturing... which is a LOW VALUE ADDition activity.... but about DESIGN / INNOVATION which will add more value.

It is going to be about Inventions / Innovative use of technology and DESIGN which will determine the next POWER! This will probably be a corporation/s which is able to have a great number of IPs and also BUY The IPs form individuals.

And it want be an Island or a mainland.... on the contrary it will be speared in bits in pieces throughout the world..

China and probably India will be there to do the FACTORY / SHOP FLOOR activities till a new continent is able to offer the cheap and young human resources for such activities, but by this time India and China will have huge internal demand to meet.

The World focus will shift to AFRICA around 2025....... till date it has escaped major conflicts...its time is due.... it can address the FOOD SECURITY ISSUES and is rich in minerals.

Middle Eastern kingdoms will be competing with the Europeans and Americans to comer huge tracks of land in Africa so that they can either feed their population or get control over minerals.

Africa will again go through a phase of REMOTE CONTROLLED colonization & TURF wars, and this will awaken its masses to the fact that they are being exploited... this will lead to revolutions and conflicts.

New factors will emerge for regional conflicts, which will be shifting in nature, continuous and sporadic, the magnitude will not have global ramifications, and a different terminology will emerge , each conflict will involve different opponents fighting for varried / different reason..…. ( barring one big guy the USA whose interest will directly or indirectly be a major factor in these conflicts.).

Best Regards
Parimal B. Shah
Lovson
B-901, Safal Pegasus
Anandnagar Road
Prahladnagar
Ahmedabad - 380051 Votes: +0

Manufacturing excellence has always moved from geography to geography but somewhere basic concept is the same i.e. materialistic life. The four superpowers England, USA, Japan and China made our lives more comfortable but gifted us a lot of problems like Global warming, population, pollution and lot of diseases. Think of a situation when money is flowing like sea water but there is no one to use it. Where we stand? No where. For e.g. it took whole life to be millionaire but a month to come on road because of the dreadful disease Cancer. Mechanization, industrialization and there fellow friend negativity is on its peak. What we need next is the developing country full of resources, less negativity, young energetic and dynamic population. By negativity I mean utilization of energy and ideas in wrong way. Do not we think we are looking for a country like India? According to analysis and changing requirement India is going to be the next super power. The Medicinal area is waiting to drive the next manufacturing cycle. We are not untouched by the fact that half of the population cannot afford their diagnosis and treatment because of the costly medicines. We can see even the BPL people carrying cells because of Chinese revolution. But the same masses die of pain as they are not able to afford the ever increasing cost of treatment. This is all what made me write that India is going to be next super power and that too in the health sector. India is the biggest platform for entrepreneurship because it has both components capital and lot of young dynamic energetic labour. This is the only country which has lot of resources, medicinal plants and the second in the cement production after China. Theme of this revolution is very noble and that is “saving lives of the people”. Not the production but the invention era of natural products is the next. Products free of chemicals like medicines, cosmetics and household products will rule over the world. Now day’s tension, restlessness is increasing due to ever increasing demands and due to the race to be at top. We can’t compromise with the economic growth in short with industrialization hence these problems will increase more and more. Hence just the pathway of yoga and ayurveda can relax us from tension and direct our energy towards the right direction. It’s not a point to be included but let me clear one scientific concept that even the world’s renowned scientist use 5% of their mind. From last few years invention level is becoming stagnant means, now it is required that we should use our left over mind. It’s not like eating an ice cream but we have to put in efforts in the form of meditation and yoga. India is the only country which has just 10% people who are above average and the left 90% are yet waiting to achieve success leading to no concept of ‘me generation’. Poster boy of this era will be “YOGA” and it is telling us that stop finding some other nation as the next sunrise is of Indians.

SWATI RANA,
BIOTECH STUDENT (PUNJAB).
Votes: -1

Introduction
My name is Ravi Jagani. I have done my Graduation in Commerce from Gujarat University. I did my Post-Graduation in Family Business Management and Entrepreneurship from Nirma Institute of Management. After my Post-Graduation I traveled extensively in India visiting various companies and their manufacturing facilities in India. My family is in the Business of Extraction of Edible Oils. My family also has interests in various other businesses like: Forging, Warehousing, Commodities, Fastener Manufacturing, etc. through group companies.

First of all I would like to give the details about the countries I have traveled to:
1)USA (as a tourist – 1994)
2)USA (as a tourist – 2002)
3)England (as a tourist – 2002)
4)Hong Kong (as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University – 2006)
5)China (as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University – 2006)
6)South Korea (as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University – 2006)
7)China (as an Entrepreneur for survey of the Chinese Manufacturing – 2007)
8)China (as a Businessman for a Manufacturing tie-up – 2008)

The above given details were mentioned because my views are based on my visits to those country during the various stages of my life.

As mentioned in the article the first manufacturing superpower was England in the era of Steam Engine, the second cycle moved to USA in the ERA of Petrol Engine and Electricity, the third cycle moved to Japan in the era of Electronic Goods, the fourth cycle moved to China in the era of Cheap Goods and Massive scale and the fifth cycle will take place in India and that will be the era of Steam Engine(the extensive use of Railway in India), Petrol Engine, Electronics, Cheap Goods & Quality Goods, Massive Scale, Wind Energy (emergence of companies like Suzlon on the Global scene), growth of Entrepreneurship, IT Industry and Human Resource.

The reasons for me backing India as the next manufacturing superpower are as follows:
1)India being the second most populated in the world, the self-consumption or the domestic demand will be so huge that it will automatically create Economies of Scale for India to cater to its domestic demand. As it will create economies of scale goods produced in India will become cheaper and hence India will be selling those goods the world over at cheaper rates.

2)In the coming years the working population of India will be at its maximum and in the age of 20 to 50 years whereas in other countries the population would have aged out and the working population would be of much higher age. This will give India a great advantage over other countries as it will have more of Productive population (working population) in the coming years. While India is getting young the same is not the case with the West. While there will be a deficiency of population in the working age group in almost all western countries, India will have a huge surplus, thus the work will naturally flow to India, which will further drive the growth. So, there are no chances of any of the European countries becoming a manufacturing superpower.

3)At present the English speaking population in India is much higher than the English speaking population of China. As years go by and the schooling, college & university infrastructure increases in India the English speaking population of India will be much more than that of China giving it an edge over China in ease of Communication for business and its acceptability over the world. Large English speaking population with technical expertise and talent to conduct clinical research is an added advantage.

4)The Indian IT industry is far ahead and developed than the IT industry of China. During my visit to China as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University, one of the Professors at a Chinese University (who was a member or a seat holder in the Chinese house and educated from a reputed university from USA) told us that they (China) only envy one thing from India and that is the Indian IT Industry. Use of IT in various aspects of life and industry will be the turning point in the coming years

5)Quality: From my experience of visiting China 3 times in the last 20 months in various roles I feel that the Indian Industry is ahead of the Chinese Industry when it comes to Quality. In the last 20 months I have traveled a lot in India also visiting various companies and their manufacturing facilities (MNC’s, Indian Companies, Small Scale Industries and Cottage Industries) for setting up my new business and also for getting a view and feel of the Indian Manufacturing, I feel as far as Quality Work goes India is much ahead of China in production of Quality goods.

6)China is far behind India in the ability to politically manage conflicts because of it being a Communist country.

At present India is about 10-12 years behind China in respect of Infrastructure. What is lacking at this stage in India is that there is no value creation because we can not attract decent return and hence it becomes difficult to employ top line people. While China also enjoys most of the cost advantages that India does, I believe that the Chinese presence in outsourcing is likely to be restricted largely to intermediates and low-end goods/products, while Indian companies are likely to be present across the value chain. Then to India faces a competition from many countries.

Entrepreneurship in India is growing day-by-day and people are being motivated for innovation and entrepreneurial ventures by the growing number of incubation cells, Venture Funds and PE Funds flowing into India. The Entrepreneurial spirit in India is growing day-by-day and has also led to a substantial number of successful stories and ventures.
There are many severe pitfalls and roadblocks which India has to overcome in the near future before it becomes a manufacturing superpower in the international scene on a sustained basis.

One more probable candidate for being the manufacturing superpower are the African countries but I feel it’s yet to long a time for the African countries can make their presence felt.

So, as per my opinion India will be the next Manufacturing Superpower.
Votes: +0

Definitely not an easy question to answer, given the dynamism and uncertainly of world economy, political conditions and changing customer aspirations. For such predictions one can always look into the past and present for trends & clues and extrapolate them with best of human intention and judgement. Let’s take a brief look at the history of previous shifts. The shifts in manufacturing base in the past were not disjoint or unrelated. It was always an improvement shift. Not only the improvement in methodology of manufacturing but more importantly the improvement in serving the customers at that time. USA took the lead from U.K. & Europe, when it used mechanisation coupled with new inventions, mass production & assembly techniques to make new useful products and make them available to masses. Japan took the lead, when it added the quality and sophistication to what USA provided. The high quality and hi tech products of Japan, made the customers worldwide crave for them. Japan would have maintained its lead but for its aging population and so entered China with its low cost and massive scale. China made products more affordable and is preferred manufacturing destination for any company who wants to reduce manufacturing costs. Also its low cost imitations, though of cheap quality, made the sought after products accessible to economically weaker and to a larger section of society. So where does one go from here? The answer lies in understanding the customers and the value proposition they will expect from a product in future.

The next phase of manufacturing will have to fulfill following four aspects of the unique customer value proposition.

1.High Quality: The craving for quality product created by Japanese products can never be satiated. And lack of quality in Chinese manufacturing has left customers more aware and appreciative of quality. Quality will be the corner stone of future manufacturing excellence.

2. Low Cost: Again after tasting the low cost products of Chinese manufacturing, one cannot go back to paying more. Value for money will be on top of the customer mind.

3. Innovative & Customised Products with small delivery lead time: This is the stage to which a customer has been pampered by companies nowadays. The coming generation will be highly individualistic. They will seek expression of their personality & individuality in every product they use. Be it clothes, shoes, gadgets, food or anything else. At the same time, the economically weaker section will look for bare minimum product features and will not pay for any feature which they don’t require. Innovative and Customised products will be the key the meet the demands at both top & bottom of the pyramid, and customers will expect quick delivery as usual. The company who delays the product delivery will lose the customers to other competitors.

4.Seamless integration of product and services: A customer will not look for a product, but for a solution. A complete package of product and service bundled together, which will cover his needs.

To put it this way, the customer of future will demand a car customised to his body size and his tastes of performance and style, at the cost of Tata Nano, with quality of a Porsche and he will expect the company to give delivery and after sales service at his doorstep and if he doesn’t know driving, to teach him driving too.
Sounds outrageous! But just before you reject it as a wishful thinking, won’t you as a customer wish that way? These four aspects will form the theme of next manufacturing phase. Convergence of above conflicting four aspects may seem impossible today, but only that nation which enables this convergence and fulfils this irresistible customer value proposition, will undoubtedly host the next manufacturing revolution in the world.

Now what will be the drivers to achieve this uphill and seemingly impossible task? Again we look at the history for answer. History is full of paradigm changing, path breaking thoughts, which revolutionised the manufacturing. Did anyone really expected to reduce cost and improve quality by decreasing the batch size? No one did before Sir Taichi Ohno. It was a paradigm change. Did anyone thought that rather than arm-twisting the suppliers, collaborating with them will reduce cost? Or did anyone even dreamed of that giving away chunks of operations to someone else will reduce cost for them? Again a paradigm change. Did anyone really thought that our legacy of functional based organisation is in fact hampering our growth and the need of hour is to reengineer with process focus? Going further back in history, once people could never believe that investing money on a non value adding activity like quality control will lead to less cost and more sales and Sir Deming had to take his ideas elsewhere. Old Paradigms and Mindsets have been challenged and changed before and it’s imperative to challenge and change them further to see another manufacturing revolution. Also Global outlook and world sourcing will be the key aspect of the future. An engineer sitting in Germany converting the requirements of a customer in Australia, into required drawings and passing it on to a manufacturing hub in India, which in turn will source the raw material from Africa and other parts of the world. Whole world will be the playground for companies as they seek customers and resources in future.

Needless to say, this uphill task will require next generation, paradigm changing and path breaking thinking and action. And this will be the biggest driver for the manufacturing revolution. Any nation with leadership, entrepreneurship and managerial capacity to take risk, challenge existing mindsets, generate new thinking and put it in action will herald the new revolution in manufacturing.

Another major driver will be the way we will manage the energy requirements. One thing is for sure, the new manufacturing phase will not be powered by fossil fuels. Following case points in that direction. A small town in Uttar Pradesh receives electricity only for 6-7 hours a day. The sugar mills in that area were struggling to survive as energy costs were soaring. Rather than blame the government or diesel prices, sugar mills installed a boiler and turbine to generate the electricity. And guess what the fuel was? It was Bagasse, the by-product and a waste of sugarcane crushing. This breakthrough story is already old now. Innovative means of trapping renewable sources have been in progress for quite some time. Further we need to integrate all the possible renewable energy means into a solution package, scale them up and drive down their lifecycle cost. Imagine a manufacturing plant, with its roof covered with solar panels, solar concentrators fitted in adjoining area, concentrating the solar energy onto a tower like receiver on top of the buildings, windmills dotting the roof tops and adjoining landscape, a biogas plant collecting all the human excreta from the buildings, any useful by-product form the manufacturing plant being ploughed back to generate energy, the buildings and landscape designed for maximum energy efficiency with use of LED based lighting systems and passive cooling. Such manufacturing plant will be not only be self sufficient and save money but also bring earnings in form of carbon credits and some extra electricity over the weekends. Next phase of manufacturing will happen in this type of plant. The nation which adopts these technologies rapidly and on large scale, to power both manufacturing and transportation, will make technologies affordable in process and gain the edge.

Another driver will be the adoption of new technologies like rapid prototyping, nanotechnology and others in mainstream manufacturing. It should not be confused that next manufacturing phase will be technology driven. Instead it will be value driven and only those new technologies which are able to deliver desired product features at low cost will drive the next manufacturing phase. Also remember, focus will be on adoption of technologies on large scale rather than doing basic research on them. A nation though is not doing any basic research in new technologies, but takes risk and adopts them fast on large scale will have a manufacturing edge.

Further a significant driver will be to find the right blend of technology and human intervention, to allow customisation at low cost. Consider this. An engineer after interpreting the customer requirements makes required drawings for its manufacturing and passes them on to automated machine shops to make parts for that customer order. The assembly line worker receives customised parts on the belt and assembles them as per the drawings and parts list for that particular customer order. The truck for transporting the products to distribution centre will be converted to a paint shop, inside which painters are painting each product as per the customer requirements, enroute to distribution centre. Any guess, where the product is being packaged? At distribution centres. It all sounds funny, until someone starts doing it profitably.
The next pertinent driver is the competent, flexible and motivated workforce to make it possible. Multi-skilled workers adept at various crafts and computer savvy will form the asset base of any manufacturing industry of future.

Last but not the least, government policies will also be a major driver. Policies which enable adoption of renewable energy sources, infrastructure development and entrepreneurship will give a boost to the next manufacturing revolution. The rise of China in manufacturing is due to the top down approach, i.e. the government support to industries and entrepreneurship in form of capital and other facilities.

Now, who is the one that will host the next manufacturing revolution? No one better than India is in that demographic sweet spot to make it happen. A young workforce, entrepreneurial spirit, managerial talent and global outlook, we have nearly all the drivers, but not at their best. We are a young nation and within a decade our working population will peak to 800 million. But still the organisations are complaining about talent crunch. Out of so many graduates being churned out every year, only 10-25% are employable. India is riding high on entrepreneurship, but more confined to IT and service sector, as entrepreneurship suffers in manufacturing sector due to high capital requirements and lack of manpower with relevant skills. World’s biggest democracy, but with unstable governments, resorting to retrograde steps to woo vote banks. Also India lags behind when it comes to adoption of new technologies. If India fails to bridge the gaps with respect to these drivers, then China may continue as the world manufacturing leader. China is also in same sweet demographic spot as India and is in fairly good position on many drivers. If they wake up and come out of their cheap, low cost and massive scale production to provide the irresistible customer proposition discussed above, then the trend may break and China may continue to host the next manufacturing revolution. One more region can prove to be an underdog, the rich Middle East nations. They are quick in adapting the best technologies in world, evident form their grand buildings, man-made islands and other engineering marvels. Their wealth increases their appetite for new technologies and risks associated with them. They have started to look beyond Oil. They have been leveraging their wealth to attract the talent from other countries and they can continue to do so to drive the next manufacturing revolution. By doing so, they will also come strong on all the drivers for the next manufacturing excellence.

It’s these three regions which are poised to become next manufacturing superpower. It would be premature to zero on any one of them. All the three has the potential but let’s not forget. One is not rewarded for having the potential but for applying the potential. Votes: +1

First and foremost the universe is going through an epoch making change be it in education , industry, entrepreneurs etc. Hence competition is on the increase .It will be difficult for any one country to be the centre stage as what happened to Uk, USA , Japan or for that matter China. Even a country becoming a pioneer because of an invention may not even be a leader in a few years as other countries would compete for the same product.Mass production will stay but innovation is becoming more important due to the depletion of natural resources. For example Japan has taken the initiative of retiring or selling of all their petrol/diesel based vehicles so that in 5 years time only solar/ battery cars will operate in Japan. Similiarly electricity will be more nuclear than hydro. The world will see these changes in abig way due to a world wide crisis in all natural resources and the world will have no option but to look for alternates to these natural resources.This may not be the case for USA as they have enormous resouces mainly crude and water. Hence there may not be an urgent need for US to innovate.

Hence in my opinion one country would innovate and another country would manufacture the innovation as what China has been doing till date. If this trend were to continue then China would dominate atleast for the next two decades as long as they maintain their low costs.


Regards


John Amalraj
Managing Director
Skylark Information Technologies Pvt Ltd
No 42, 40 feet Scheme Road,Nungambakkam,Chennai-34 Votes: +0

Emgland - Steam Engine
USA - Petrol Engine Electricity
Japan - Electronics
China - cheap goods massive scale

NOW going to be
INDIA..............

and whose 1st step will be started by me
you will see it soon......... in this year Votes: -1

As stated in your article the Manufacturing centre has shifted from England to USA to Japan and finally to China. But the United States of America stands tall and strong even today. Reason: Research and development. America's strength has always been its ability to invent. When Japan became a strong manufacturing Hub in the sixties and seventies, America stole the thunder with the Computer revolution in the eighties (again example of its inventiveness). The China phenomenon is purely because of low cost. But the ultimate winner will always be the country that continues to invent and innovate. Though the Japanese were not inventors they were great innovators.
I believe America will continue to dominate due to their research and development strength. However the manufacturing centre will be more widespread. With faster means of travel, better communication and computer technology, manufacturing will spread accross countries. Components will be manufactured in different countries and assembled in another country. We are already seeing this trend. Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 aircrafts are the best examples of this shift. It will be a combination of low cost production countries and technically skilled nations. Also with dwindling energy resources and high cost of fuel countries that can bank upon the unlimited solar and wind power will have a distinct advantage.
So my conclusion is
1. America will dominate in research and development and so will continue
to fuel manufacturing demands across the globe.
2. No single nation will be the next manufacturing superpower.
3. Manufacturing will spread across globe with the concept of outsource,
procure and assemble.
4. Countries that have production cost advantage will continue to engage
in manufacturing of low tech products and components.
5. Countries that have abundant natural resources like sunlight and wind
will have a big leap forward.
6. And countries with technical skill resources will steal the show.
Manufacturing will be concentrated in these Nations that have the advantages stated in Points 4 to 6.
Where does India fit in this scenario? We are fast loosing our low cost advantage with rising salaries. However we have abundance of solar and wind power and a large bank of technically skilled resources. If our politicians have the will we can have our hand in the Manufacturing Pie and propel our country to great heights. Votes: +0

The next manufacturing destination will be India and Brazil who are coming economically in terms of patents with skilled diversed labour force.Whose economies are glooming creating big dreams for the coming youngsters with the challenging tasks daunting their economies making them fight and arise like a Phoneix going through the recession in the developed countries on which they are depended as of now Votes: -1

its sure that INDIA will be the next super power.as the economy of india is growing very fast.and all will foreign investors are investing in india.and the fastest growing retail hub....... Votes: -1

World will be the next Manufacturing Hub

England…USA…Japan…China…WORLD

Manufacturing has moved over from one country to another depending upon the existing Economic, Political, Social & Technological factors. Each one of these countries have exploited the economic scenario to their best advantage. Enough of monopoly, the future of manufacturing lies in the power of globalization.

Next manufacturing Superpower will not be any particular country, but it will be all of the above mentioned Superpowers along with some unknown names. Web 2.0 will be harnessed effectively for the next manufacturing facilities.

Let us not forget the need for Mass personalization in the future. This will create a scenario wherein final customizations will be done regionally.

Take for example, senior management may sit in Europe, IT management may be done from India, fuels from Brazil may be utilized & a manufacturing plant may be set-up at China, Japan, S. Korea or all of these, & most importantly the Global brains may be working together to design the ingenious processes. Mass personalization will be done locally.

All of these would be possible with the help of technology. Social websites will not only be a mode of entertainment, but they will also act as drivers for this trend. Internet will be the catalyst. Mobile technology will only get better by the day.
.
China will remain the manufacturing superpower till half-way of next decade. Till that time technology will evolve to empower the whole world to be the manufacturing superpower. This trend will continue in different forms (some countries may take a dominance for certain category of products, but that will last shortly) till 2030s. By that time Africa would have evolved & that would lead to the power of blacks. BLACK will be IN during 2040+.

Pulkit Somani
Junior Consulatnt, Marketing & Innovations
Retail & Distribution Solutions
Zensar Technologies Ltd.
Votes: +0

Really it is a very nice article “Who will be the next manufacturing superpower?” in Dare July 2008 issue. Yes! You are right. China is the King of manufacturing. But who is the prince to be crowned after the King?

I have been, for the last many years in my talk at various places advocating that India will be the Next Super Economic /Manufacturing Power. India has all the qualities to become the Super Economic/Manuafacturing Power, it may be resources, knowledge, Youth Talents, etc. Just have a look at the achievements of the Indians around the globe. Really, we are proud to be an Indian. I have given below my thoughts.

Next Super Manufacturing Power - India

The economic base of the world has changed from time to time. We can see the change as follows:

• Holland : 18th Century

• UK : 18/19th Century

• USA : 19/20th Century

• JAPAN : 20th Century

• China : Now

• Next : ?


There is a saying that “India missed 1st Industrial revolution due to colonialism, the 2nd revolution due to socialism. So the country cannot and must not miss the 3rd revolution – IT is underway now.

The factors that can drive India to make Super Economic / Manufacturing Power.

1.English Language – Today we are able to teach others English. This helps us to expand our business all around the globe and capture the world market. (Which China cannot do).

2. Indians made a record in the field of information technology. Definitely, this helps a lot for all other industry to grow and achieve to global needs.

3.The NRIs investment in India can bring a sea change in the manufacturing scenario.

4. The Yoga, Veda and Ayurveda - ancient knowledge can also be one of the major drivers in making India the Super manufacturing Power.

5. Government policies can also help in this direction.

6. China has taught us that large population is not a liability. If properly utilized, it can be converted into a great asset.

7. Statistics say that within few decades the percentage of youth in population of India is higher comparatively to any other country. This also plays an important role economic/manufacturing trend of the country.

What we have to do now?

At macro level:

Have grand Indian vision.
Have strategic partnerships
Shared aspiration of all people.


At micro level:

Bring back pride in work and work with passion.
Shift to duty orientation compared to rights orientation
Go back to basics and have bias for action.
Taking more responsibility in whatever we are doing


I firmly believe that India will be next Super Economic/Manufacturing Power with the great knowledge of the past, present remarkable achievements in Information Technology, huge untapped natural resources and of course with large population.

In March 2002, I have delivered a talk after my visit China at Rotray Mysore, Mysore. The paper clipping titled “Hindi Chini Buy Buy” published in local newspaper Star of Mysore, is also attached herewith.

Regards,
B.R.Pai
Chairman and Managing Director,
VWF Industries P. Ltd.,
Website : www.vwfindustries.com
Votes: -1

I have done my Graduation in Commerce from Gujarat University. I did my Post-Graduation in Family Business Management and Entrepreneurship from Nirma Institute of Management. After my Post-Graduation I traveled extensively in India visiting various companies and their manufacturing facilities in India. My family is in the Business of Extraction of Edible Oils. My family also has interests in various other businesses like: Forging, Warehousing, Commodities, Fastener Manufacturing, etc. through group companies.

First of all I would like to give the details about the countries I have traveled to:
1)USA (as a tourist – 1994)
2)USA (as a tourist – 2002)
3)England (as a tourist – 2002)
4)Hong Kong (as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University – 2006)
5)China (as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University – 2006)
6)South Korea (as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University – 2006)
7)China (as an Entrepreneur for survey of the Chinese Manufacturing – 2007)
8)China (as a Businessman for a Manufacturing tie-up – 2008)

The above given details were mentioned because my views are based on my visits to those country during the various stages of my life.

As mentioned in the article the first manufacturing superpower was England in the era of Steam Engine, the second cycle moved to USA in the ERA of Petrol Engine and Electricity, the third cycle moved to Japan in the era of Electronic Goods, the fourth cycle moved to China in the era of Cheap Goods and Massive scale and the fifth cycle will take place in India and that will be the era of Steam Engine(the extensive use of Railway in India), Petrol Engine, Electronics, Cheap Goods & Quality Goods, Massive Scale, Wind Energy (emergence of companies like Suzlon on the Global scene), growth of Entrepreneurship, IT Industry and Human Resource.

The reasons for me backing India as the next manufacturing superpower are as follows:
1)India being the second most populated in the world, the self-consumption or the domestic demand will be so huge that it will automatically create Economies of Scale for India to cater to its domestic demand. As it will create economies of scale goods produced in India will become cheaper and hence India will be selling those goods the world over at cheaper rates.

2)In the coming years the working population of India will be at its maximum and in the age of 20 to 50 years whereas in other countries the population would have aged out and the working population would be of much higher age. This will give India a great advantage over other countries as it will have more of Productive population (working population) in the coming years. While India is getting young the same is not the case with the West. While there will be a deficiency of population in the working age group in almost all western countries, India will have a huge surplus, thus the work will naturally flow to India, which will further drive the growth. So, there are no chances of any of the European countries becoming a manufacturing superpower.

3)At present the English speaking population in India is much higher than the English speaking population of China. As years go by and the schooling, college & university infrastructure increases in India the English speaking population of India will be much more than that of China giving it an edge over China in ease of Communication for business and its acceptability over the world. Large English speaking population with technical expertise and talent to conduct clinical research is an added advantage.

4)The Indian IT industry is far ahead and developed than the IT industry of China. During my visit to China as a student of Entrepreneurship from Nirma University, one of the Professors at a Chinese University (who was a member or a seat holder in the Chinese house and educated from a reputed university from USA) told us that they (China) only envy one thing from India and that is the Indian IT Industry. Use of IT in various aspects of life and industry will be the turning point in the coming years

5)Quality: From my experience of visiting China 3 times in the last 20 months in various roles I feel that the Indian Industry is ahead of the Chinese Industry when it comes to Quality. In the last 20 months I have traveled a lot in India also visiting various companies and their manufacturing facilities (MNC’s, Indian Companies, Small Scale Industries and Cottage Industries) for setting up my new business and also for getting a view and feel of the Indian Manufacturing, I feel as far as Quality Work goes India is much ahead of China in production of Quality goods.

6)China is far behind India in the ability to politically manage conflicts because of it being a Communist country.

At present India is about 10-12 years behind China in respect of Infrastructure. What is lacking at this stage in India is that there is no value creation because we can not attract decent return and hence it becomes difficult to employ top line people. While China also enjoys most of the cost advantages that India does, I believe that the Chinese presence in outsourcing is likely to be restricted largely to intermediates and low-end goods/products, while Indian companies are likely to be present across the value chain. Then to India faces a competition from many countries.

Entrepreneurship in India is growing day-by-day and people are being motivated for innovation and entrepreneurial ventures by the growing number of incubation cells, Venture Funds and PE Funds flowing into India. The Entrepreneurial spirit in India is growing day-by-day and has also led to a substantial number of successful stories and ventures.
There are many severe pitfalls and roadblocks which India has to overcome in the near future before it becomes a manufacturing superpower in the international scene on a sustained basis.

One more probable candidate for being the manufacturing superpower are the African countries but I feel it’s yet to long a time for the African countries can make their presence felt.

So, as per my opinion India will be the next Manufacturing Superpower.
Votes: -1

The trend says this:
First it was England , then U.S , the Japan , then China..
What this tells us is that the chance of manufacturing actually flourishing in a country depends on the attitude of the people and their standard of living. Manufacturing will flourish only when people live off ambition and not hope.
Further in all the above cases always a country has used manufacturing as a base to improve the quality or standard of life of its people and handed over the baton of industrialization to the country that was just behind it in terms of the standard of living of the people. The country that was less developed then did the same thing to the next one and so on. Now we have considered only a few cases but every time this baton is passed, more and more countries enter the chain.
After China, it will hence be Indonesia, Egypt , Thailand , Brazil.
Further with the recent advances in manufacturing techniques and management practices , setting up a plant and getting it started wont take that long and it would be like fixing together parts of a Lego toy.Hence infrastructure will not be the most difficult aspect of manufacturing anymore.
Votes: +0

As,i am in S.Y.B.com i have plans to start do busiess with your co. so that i can show my efficiency and make our plans into realistic goals.And i promise you that my ideas of planning and management will benefit you in today as well as future state. Votes: +0

China started to grow towards Manufacturing super power since 1980. and it had held the post till date. It has come across with all the negative complaints viz Defective Products and Products not long lasting.

Now they have understood that the people now are looking for quality product which is long lasting product and should also be cost effective.

As they are already a Manufacturing Super power they have tasted the backlash for their products. Now they will learn from their mistakes and will spend on R & D and again become Number One.

Anil Shetty (India)
Votes: +0

The Next Manufacturing Superpower will be China. As all the foreign investors are investing in china till date and will also do so in the future. Votes: +0

I think the next manufacturing super power will be Europe again. As the outsourcing and knowledge work will continue to generate more and more value in the times to come, Europe will be the focal point of all manufacturing. While components may get manufactured and labour from India, Asia, Brazil may be used, but it is the knowledge work done by those in Europe, will take away the cream - meaning most of the profits. So it would matter less and less where the assembly line was actually put up, as it won't make the nations rich, as in the past. Every nation will have enough labour work to do and lesser hands who would be interested in the menial jobs. Europe being the ideal destination and the style hub of the world, it will attract the knowledge workers from all over to confluence and generate the ideas together. The hot working conditions in India, will prevent people to chose this country to converge. It is the places like Italy, Austria, France, London, Germany, Switzerland and the like who would demonstrate to the world yet again - that they have the creativity, discipline, dedication and the character to back their claim for the high table. We will be happier as our economic lot will continue to improve so would be for most of world. But we will not be able to recreate the magic that a small village in Italy does. Never.

Sanjay Sethi
Vice President - Food Industry Practice
Technopak Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Votes: -1

The next business driver for manufacturing excellence will be the end to end services and our country has already established the credentials in knowledge capital to open up global market for small medium enterprises at base in unity with diversity to get reliably export oriented so as to serve gunvatta as quality resource planning with improving infrastructure getting better. To take a leaf, made as India is overwelmed to keep a tradition all across where guests are worshiped anytime or everytime no matter what cost constraints are to fit the bill. Let the new era of emerging economy on world map on lean and mean agile manufacturing be from strength to strength. Votes: +0

A lot of products across the world will still carry the "Made in China/Taiwan/Korea/Phillipines etc" but these Brands will be owned by Mfg Giants from US/Europe like the Nikes, Nokias, Simens of these developed countries. The reasons being that though countries like China/India & the other far east asian countries will have a lot of cheap labour available, the ideas, new products etc will still be developed in Countries like US, Japan, Germany etc where is lot of money is invested in R&D & technology.

The key drivers for the coming generations would be communication, internet, value added services etc and these very developed countries will still continue to produce the brands/products for enabling the world communicate faster and more efficiently. They will still continue to provide the world the Chips, iPods, WiFi enabled devices and these still will be continued to be manufactured in countries like China, India, Taiwan etc. But as cost of labour goes up in these countries, with time, Companies will then start looking at the next level of countries/growing economies to manufacture and sell these products. These countries would probably be the South American countries like Brazil, Argentina, Mexico etc.

So my best bet for the next manufacturing super power will be South American countries like Argentina, Brazil, Mexico etc.
Votes: -1

Off course it will be India provided the following takes place.

1)The most important Left should not have any power in Government decission. Left, who think that they are God Father of less priviledge people of India, never worried about inflation and withdrawn the support to the Government on the issue of Nuclear Deal, which is good for India.,

2)Government of India, since, now Left is out of VETO power in Central Government decissions, should start all pending Financial and Labour Reforms very aggressively.

3)Start all Infrastructure Projects with full speed.

4)Implement single door policy for obtaining license to start business in India.

5)Improve standard of Education and Technical training in India.
Votes: +1

I feel everybody is missing Africa here. India and China are stepping backwards due to appreciating currencies and increasing labor costs. Africa, if invested properly, you get good returns with very hardworking labor. Problem with Africa is politics and poverty. If a deal is made with a purpose with fine tuned policies, I feel government would definitely benefit inturn the people of Africa. Instead of donations to Africa, look for investment. Votes: -1

"...What will power the next era of manufacturing greatness? Which product will be the icon, the poster boy of the next manufacturing cycle? And what will be the big theme?"
Answer 1: Nuclear power (There is Natural resource left for such use)
Answer 2: chips (Electronics)
Answer 3: Theme can be anything relating to the above or its may be Nanotechnology on large scale, robotics.

And the hub of all these will be one and only "China".
Votes: +1

NO DOUBT THIS WILL BE INDIA
India Will be next manufacturing super power. The economy is growing at rate of 8 to 9% and infrastrucute facilities are improving coupled with it with the young, well educated people around
Votes: -1

There is not going to be one country which will be the superpower in manufacturing next.
It will be big corporations formed out of mergers and acquistions. Like mergers of Ranbaxy with the japanese, merger of tata motors with jaguar and land rover.
Votes: -1

Yes it true US will be producing and china will be reproducing. Votes: +0

Historically, manufacturing leadership was driven by innovation in R&D. But Japan became a manufacturing superpower by separating R&D from process innovation. So to find leadership in manufacturing, you have to look for leadership in manufacturing processes.

When Japanese manufacturers focused on process, they drove costs downward and quality upward. This produced an economic demand for high-quality, low-cost products.

Manufacturers are primarily focused on keeping their costs low, and they are only indirectly interested in high quality. Much of the desire to have high quality is that low quality increases costs, either because of aftermarket incidents or because low quality reduces volume, and low volume decreases economies of scale. Because of this focus, manufacturing will succeed where labor costs and equipment operational costs are low.

The manufacturing leader of the future will need to provide enormous scale with a high level of customization. Scale will be high because of the huge global market for consumer goods, the falling of trade barriers that will continue to create an even playing field, and instantaneous communication, shortening the adoption cycle for new technologies and new fads. Thus, the leader will need to have a very large labor pool, and a culture that offers job satisfaction at all levels of the corporate ladder.

The leader will also need to have an educational infrastructure that emphasizes innovation in operations and a culture that supports this goal.

The leader needs a management structure that rewards business success as measured in sustainable profitability.
The country will need to maintain excellent and open relations with trading partners all over the world, without the undue intervention of government policies in its trade.

Of these traits, I'd expect India the likeliest candidate. China's governmental structure might interfere with its ability to groom or retain the best management. Most other countries are too small to offer the scale that will be required to serve the needs of a middle-class global economy that is growing rapidly, largely due to the growth in economies such as China's.

All that said, the concept of a country being a manufacturing leader might be archaic soon. With communications and logistics advancements, manufacturing operations might be so fractured over many countries that it could be impossible to determine which of these partners actually was responsible for leadership.
Votes: -1

INDIA - NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.
Growth story and latest adaptibilty at its peak. Lot talent now being utilised in house with no spill over that is talent being taken out of country is now stoped / limited. This shall lead to logarithmic growth. India has reliable talent to provide manufacturing hub of World across. Wind Energy and Nuclear Power being upcoming ones.
Votes: -1

The industrial revolution begun in England, which created ripples in Western Europe and later on in the USA. Japan emerged as a clear winner post the second world war. Things started changing thereafter, to manufacture things in these countries was proving to be expensive, and this led to the development of the Asian tiger, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong & now China.

However, the thing here is not that Europe of America was losing out. True, China and India will continue to dominate the world manufacturing scene as super powers, the reason for all this is our low cost of manufacturing. However, sooner or later we will need to face the reality as these other countries. Refer any book on strategic management, and one will know that for any product to be successful, it needs to low cost, or will need to have distinctive competencies which are harder to replicate to be successful. Brand India, or Brand China, I am afraid, are yet to have such great competencies apart from being low cost. Plainly put, there are hardly any globally accepted well known Indian or Chinese brands of products in any sector. If China & India lose the sheen of low cost manufacturing then we will see the rise of the African nations where costs are even lesser.

In the days to come, its not about which countries will be the manufacturing hubs. The USA and Europe still thrives even though they cease to be manufacturing hubs. This is because they still have their R&D, and have build global brand value and trust, which will remain the same irrespective of where they are made. (E.g: All apple products are designed in Cuppertino, USA but are made in China.)

Its high time we wake up and smell the coffee! Votes: +0

In future not china but will japan. its about production vs quality. people needs quality not production, may china have manpower but japan's quality is much ahead from all this.
Votes: +0

INDIA is the next SuperPower in Manufacturing industry.India is always provide the best & durable products and will continue for the same. Votes: +0

The article was interesting. As china is already facing strain on it's resources and the appreciation of yuan against dollar around 20% in the last few months is making it difficult for the small and medium enterprises to sustain.

Ellango
http://www.benzeneinternational.com Votes: -1

No doubt, currently the China has crowned itself as the undisputed ‘King of Manufacturing’

But very soon fear of potential hazards will open the doors for distributed technology to counter the human health, human impacts on the environment, and on increasing standards of living around the world. This derived by strong desires for personal freedom and people's need to gain control over lifestyles that are moving faster and faster – transportation technology will power the next era of manufacturing greatness.

In this push, we will see introduction of environment-friendly, friction-free, no-moving-parts flying vehicles which will be considered by many to be the ultimate freedom machine. Much like the transition from analog to digital in the world of information technology, the study of traditional mechanics and traditional aerodynamics will be replaced with a new physics governing vehicular movement.

And in this step forward, S.Korea is building economies of scale so there is no doubt that it will climb the ladder quickly and reach the peak to crown itself as ‘the next manufacturing superpower’..
Votes: -2

I sincerely feel that India is the next budding star as one can see that it's getting ready with new set of young politicians like gandhi, pilot, jaitley & many other un-known faces are emerging so one can be rest assured that new policies & transparent system will emerge. In terms of infrastructure it's getting developed with new & better technology infused in it, new experiments are underway in terms of Metro, BRT etc. most important thing is that india has infect in big numbers[read population] the most enthusiastic, energetic, hardworking young generation which is the backbone of any nation...indeed it's INDIA Votes: -1

1. I personally feel China is the next manufacturing HUB. There are no second thoughts about it. It has got the largest manpower and the right natural resources to become the leader in manufacturing space. India can be no. 2. The natural resources and manpower resources in china are ample. When you go out in the market and buy products. Even the reputed names have made in china tag including companies like nokia. Votes: +0

INDIA WILL BE THE NEXT MANUFACTURING SUPER POWER FOR THE REASON BEING INFRA DEVLOPMENT AND AQUISITION.... Votes: -2

INDIA is the next superpower in the manufacturing industry.As people are leaving the chinese market & are coming to India. Votes: -1

Korea looks a good bet to be the next manufacturug superpower. It will probably take the world by storm with electronic consumer goods and appliances. Votes: +0

China would be the next manufacturing super power for the sole reason being, China's infrastruture capability and policies allow this addressal. Votes: -1