With much of the world’s economies yet to recover from the ill-effects of recession, it will be a long time before we see ourselves in comfort zone.

Is the worst of the recession over? Are the green shoots of recovery real? Will world trade revive soon?

One wishes the answer to each of the questions is a resounding "yes". However, realism has to take precedence over optimism. The real estate bubble burst in Dubai and it had to be rescued from financial disaster by its oil-rich neighbour Abu Dhabi. We now have it straight from the horse’s mouth, namely, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Having failed miserably in predicting the intensity of the crisis in 2008, IMF bosses currently claim the economic recovery will not just be slow but that the recovery graph would not be ‘V’ shaped but could resemble another letter of the alphabet, that is, ‘W’.

On January 26, the International Labour Organization (ILO) stated that the number of jobless worldwide reached nearly 212 million in 2009, the highest level on record, following an unprecedented increase of 34 million jobless compared to 2007 on the eve of the global crisis. Based on IMF economic forecasts, the ILO estimates that global unemployment is likely to remain high through 2010. In the developed economies and the European Union, unemployment is projected to increase by an additional 3 million people in 2010, while it will stabilize at present levels, or decline only slightly, in other regions.

According to the ILO, the share of workers in vulnerable employment worldwide is estimated to reach over 1.5 billion, equivalent to half the world’s labour force. It also says that 633 million workers and their families were living on less than US$ 1.25 per day in 2008, with as many as 215 million additional workers living on the margin and at risk of falling into poverty.

We in India can consider ourselves singularly fortunate that this country has been spared the worst ravages of the ongoing international economic crisis. But with much of the world’s economies (with the exception of those of China, Australia and a few Latin American countries) yet to pick up and with food prices at home skyrocketing, there is no room for comfort.

The author is an educator, an economic analyst and a journalist with over 30 years of experience in various media—print, radio, television, Internet and documentary cinema.

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